Seasonal Projections

[loyal jay]

I have taken a look at the 4 previous seasons and compiled some data that supporters MAY find interesting. Under Watson's tenure we appear to go on long winless streaks, notably towards the end of last season where we fell apart following an exceptional Oct - Feb. In four seasons, we have never bettered the Goal scoring and Goal conceded averages of the playoff contenders, only coming close for goals scored in 21-22 season. This is when we had two prominent strikers, played at the same time, but we won't revisit that topic!

Current season projections suggest another midtable finish. Given that we tend to set-up with a lone striker, I'm not surprised that we're scoring well below the playoff average. When you're not exceeding the average in one department, you need to be excelling in the other and we fail to do that as well. In fact, we have been very consistent with our goals conceded average (even when we played with two up top in 21-22 season), it's our goals where we're falling significantly short.

19-20 Season - 32 Games Season
Dec - Winless in 5 - Ended in Jan
Feb - Winless in 5, season ended prematurely - *1 win in 11 games

20-21 Season - 14 Game Season
Nov - Winless in 5, season ended prematurely - *1 win in 8 games

21-22 Season - 42 Game Season
Aug - Position * - Winless in 7 - Ended in Oct - Position 21st
Oct - Position 21st - Without loss in 14 ( 11 wins ) - Ended in Feb - Position 6th
Mar - Position 6th - Winless in 13 - Ended in May - Position 11th

22-23 Season
Aug - Position 12th - Winless in 5 - Ended in Sep - Position 19th
Nov - Position 7th - Without loss in 9 ( 3 wins ) - Ended in Jan - Position 8th
Jan - Position 8th - Winless in 5 and counting

19-20 - Averages

Southport:
Goals Scored: 1.25 PG
Goals Conceded: 1.28 PG
Final Position: 12th

Playoff Contenders 32 game average:
Goals Scored: 1.75 PG
Goals Conceded: 1.09 PG

20-21 - Averages

Southport:
Goals Scored: 1.14 PG
Goals Conceded: 1.35 PG
Final Position: 17th

Playoff Contenders 15 game average:
Goals Scored: 1.53 PG
Goals Conceded: 1.2 PG

21-22 - Averages

Southport:
Goals Scored: 1.42PG
Goals Conceded: 1.30 PG
Final Position: 11th

Playoff Contenders:
Goals Scored: 1.47 PG
Goals Conceded: 0.97 PG

22-23 - Averages

Southport:
Goals Scored: 1.32 PG
Goals Conceded: 1.28 PG
Current Position: 12th

Playoff Contenders 27 game average:
Goals Scored: 1.59 PG
Goals Conceded: 1.07 PG

Playoff's - 4 season averages:

Goals Scored: 1.58 PG
Goals Conceded: 1.08 PG

[PortInTheSouth]

Really interesting set of stats. Thanks for compiling

[Marsh Harrier]

Always find the non league projection spreadsheet quite interesting: -

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/ ... d=44886947

Obviously a lot can change and the FA will have the final decision but a bit surprised to find Leiston in the North when it's just down the road from Ipswich, maybe Oxford City could move North,

[PortInTheSouth]

Always find the non league projection spreadsheet quite interesting: -

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/ ... d=44886947

Obviously a lot can change and the FA will have the final decision but a bit surprised to find Leiston in the North when it's just down the road from Ipswich, maybe Oxford City could move North,

Based on the consideration of North and South being a straight line across the country, Leiston finds itself more North than Banbury, Brackley, Gloucester and Hereford

[Marsh Harrier]

Based on the consideration of North and South being a straight line across the country, Leiston finds itself more North than Banbury, Brackley, Gloucester and Hereford

Looking at the projections on a map, a line from the Wash to the Severn would make more sense, however I would lobby for four leagues at our level, the number of games and amount of travelling is becoming increasingly unsustainable.

[PortInTheSouth]

Based on the consideration of North and South being a straight line across the country, Leiston finds itself more North than Banbury, Brackley, Gloucester and Hereford

Looking at the projections on a map, a line from the Wash to the Severn would make more sense, however I would lobby for four leagues at our level, the number of games and amount of travelling is becoming increasingly unsustainable.

Four leagues would take some changes to the pyramid and would cause more harm than good in my opinion.

Part of the joy of football is travelling to different places - I'd get fed up if every game was in Warrington and Manchester

[Ralphy Rylance]

Based on the consideration of North and South being a straight line across the country, Leiston finds itself more North than Banbury, Brackley, Gloucester and Hereford

Looking at the projections on a map, a line from the Wash to the Severn would make more sense, however I would lobby for four leagues at our level, the number of games and amount of travelling is becoming increasingly unsustainable.

3 would make more sense at this level geographically but the more you have then the fewer promotion places there'd be for play off contenders. Assuming each champion went up there'd only be 1 promotion spot left for a play off winner from all 3 divisions as i cannot imagine more than 4 ever being relegated from the National League. If you had 4 divisions then there'd be no play offs.

The north/south imbalance is entirely due to giving the once weaker Isthmian League parity with the Southern League back in the day. It should have been made a feeder league to the Southern League.

[Marsh Harrier]

3 would make more sense at this level geographically but the more you have then the fewer promotion places there'd be for play off contenders. Assuming each champion went up there'd only be 1 promotion spot left for a play off winner from all 3 divisions as i cannot imagine more than 4 ever being relegated from the National League. If you had 4 divisions then there'd be no play offs.

The north/south imbalance is entirely due to giving the once weaker Isthmian League parity with the Southern League back in the day. It should have been made a feeder league to the Southern League.

I failed to communicate that I would also suggest splitting NL into North and South so the four leagues feed into two. I guess you couldn't still call it the National League but it could be called something like the Non League Premier North & South and Non League Championship North, South, East & West.

[Ralphy Rylance]

3 would make more sense at this level geographically but the more you have then the fewer promotion places there'd be for play off contenders. Assuming each champion went up there'd only be 1 promotion spot left for a play off winner from all 3 divisions as i cannot imagine more than 4 ever being relegated from the National League. If you had 4 divisions then there'd be no play offs.

The north/south imbalance is entirely due to giving the once weaker Isthmian League parity with the Southern League back in the day. It should have been made a feeder league to the Southern League.

I failed to communicate that I would also suggest splitting NL into North and South so the four leagues feed into two. I guess you couldn't still call it the National League but it could be called something like the Non League Premier North & South and Non League Championship North, South, East & West.

It'd make more sense to merge NL with League 2 and have a League 2 North and South. Then have your 4 regional divisions below that.

[Redrobe fan]

Agreed.

[tonyhey]

3 would make more sense at this level geographically but the more you have then the fewer promotion places there'd be for play off contenders. Assuming each champion went up there'd only be 1 promotion spot left for a play off winner from all 3 divisions as i cannot imagine more than 4 ever being relegated from the National League. If you had 4 divisions then there'd be no play offs.

The north/south imbalance is entirely due to giving the once weaker Isthmian League parity with the Southern League back in the day. It should have been made a feeder league to the Southern League.

I failed to communicate that I would also suggest splitting NL into North and South so the four leagues feed into two. I guess you couldn't still call it the National League but it could be called something like the Non League Premier North & South and Non League Championship North, South, East & West.

It'd make more sense to merge NL with League 2 and have a League 2 North and South. Then have your 4 regional divisions below that.

Certainly food for thought.

[Exiled Port Fan]

Given the make up of the NL these days, mostly pro and a stack of ex-League clubs, it seems logical, hence the FA would never go for it.

The real draw back would be the NLN etc would be filled with unsustainable clubs spending crazy to make the league.

[Marsh Harrier]

It'd make more sense to merge NL with League 2 and have a League 2 North and South. Then have your 4 regional divisions below that.

Not for me, the 92 is non negotiable!

[Ralphy Rylance]

It'd make more sense to merge NL with League 2 and have a League 2 North and South. Then have your 4 regional divisions below that.

Not for me, the 92 is non negotiable!

Why? The 92 haven't really been the 92 since 20 buggered off to join the Premier League. And 24 teams in a division is too many at any level so I'd reduce all divisions to 20 teams.

[BlankPort]

Just to add into this thread with a proposed reshuffle at the lower levels, interesting read.

https://fanbanter.co.uk/proposed-merger ... for-clubs/

[Alan Spences Pupil]

3 would make more sense at this level geographically but the more you have then the fewer promotion places there'd be for play off contenders. Assuming each champion went up there'd only be 1 promotion spot left for a play off winner from all 3 divisions as i cannot imagine more than 4 ever being relegated from the National League. If you had 4 divisions then there'd be no play offs.

The north/south imbalance is entirely due to giving the once weaker Isthmian League parity with the Southern League back in the day. It should have been made a feeder league to the Southern League.

I failed to communicate that I would also suggest splitting NL into North and South so the four leagues feed into two. I guess you couldn't still call it the National League but it could be called something like the Non League Premier North & South and Non League Championship North, South, East & West.

It'd make more sense to merge NL with League 2 and have a League 2 North and South. Then have your 4 regional divisions below that.

Yes good suggestion, further more it would make sense to bring in a salary cap at our level to equalise opportunities....this business of travelling to Kings Lynn Hereford Banbury Gloucester etc is ridiculous even worse if we ever attain promotion to the national League...

[becbee]

Always find the non league projection spreadsheet quite interesting: -

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/ ... d=44886947

Obviously a lot can change and the FA will have the final decision but a bit surprised to find Leiston in the North when it's just down the road from Ipswich, maybe Oxford City could move North,

Based on the consideration of North and South being a straight line across the country, Leiston finds itself more North than Banbury, Brackley, Gloucester and Hereford

Gruesome journey between Leiston and Southport, 5 hours drive along A14 to where it meets the start of M6.

[becbee]

3 would make more sense at this level geographically but the more you have then the fewer promotion places there'd be for play off contenders. Assuming each champion went up there'd only be 1 promotion spot left for a play off winner from all 3 divisions as i cannot imagine more than 4 ever being relegated from the National League. If you had 4 divisions then there'd be no play offs.

The north/south imbalance is entirely due to giving the once weaker Isthmian League parity with the Southern League back in the day. It should have been made a feeder league to the Southern League.

I failed to communicate that I would also suggest splitting NL into North and South so the four leagues feed into two. I guess you couldn't still call it the National League but it could be called something like the Non League Premier North & South and Non League Championship North, South, East & West.

It'd make more sense to merge NL with League 2 and have a League 2 North and South. Then have your 4 regional divisions below that.

There's already a big enough gap between the top half of NL and much of NLN/S. The gap would even worse for clubs promoted from the regional leagues below playing teams from the regionalised half of L2 / relegated from L1.

[Ralphy Rylance]

I failed to communicate that I would also suggest splitting NL into North and South so the four leagues feed into two. I guess you couldn't still call it the National League but it could be called something like the Non League Premier North & South and Non League Championship North, South, East & West.

It'd make more sense to merge NL with League 2 and have a League 2 North and South. Then have your 4 regional divisions below that.

There's already a big enough gap between the top half of NL and much of NLN/S. The gap would even worse for clubs promoted from the regional leagues below playing teams from the regionalised half of L2 / relegated from L1.

I don't really see the problem with such a gap. Any teams playing 2 divisions apart the season before are bound to have a gap in standard.
To be honest given the number of clubs who've disappeared due to their shit or bust attempts to reach the promised land of the EFL perhaps there should be such a gap to put them off. Maybe having League 2 as just another regionalised level would help put them off.
Frankly clubs such as Notts County and Dorking should never be playing each other in league fixtures.